Consider this: During the four decades of the Cold War, all but four of sixteen major U.S. military UAV efforts were cancelled, but in the decade since, only four of twelve have been canceled, and three of those have been brought back to life (Hunter, DarkStar, and Fire Scout). What is more, the rate at which new UAV programs are now being started (seven per decade) is nearly double that during the Cold War years (an average of four per decade). What is responsible for turning this lengthy succession of stillborn programs during the Cold War era into the success streak UAVs currently enjoy?

     Several factors can take credit. The combined technologies of highly accurate navigation enabled by Global Positioning System satellites, better stability provided by laser ring gyros, and expanded mission capabilities packed into ever smaller, quicker microprocessors have done much to enhance the military potential of latter-day UAVs. UAVs have also been the poster child for the highly successful Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations (ACTDs), which have become the Defense Deparment's streamlined acquistion process. The downsizing that military forces underwent in the post-Cold War drawdown is beginning to be offset somewhat by increased reliance on robotic aircraft. But probably the most important factor is political in that the nature of the opposition has changed.

     Flying a UAV over a netted air defense system equipped with SA-5 surface-to-air missiles in the 1970s would have provided a low probability of return on a highly provocative, high political risk mission compared to that of supporting today's third world contingencies. Lockheed's GRD-21 is an example of such a political cancelation, ended due to its flights' irritating effect on sensitive U.S. and P.R.C. talks in the early 1970s. Today's less hostile environment has proven to be a friendly one for UAVs. Since the close of the nuclear threat era (~1990), U.S. forces have been heavily involved in five major regional conflicts, the Persian Gulf, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. UAVs have been employed in each and in increasing types, numbers, and roles with increasing success in each succeeding contigency. They have introduced commanders to having live, color video of events on their front instead of a black and white photo from yesterday, turning momentary reconnaissance into loitering surveilance with their "CNN in the sky" capability. They have become the leave-behind hall monitors; Predators went into the Balkans in July 1995, and with one short break, were there for the next six years, even after U.S ground forces had left.

     As the employment of UAVs has increased over the past decade, so has their funding. In 1994, U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) UAVs received US$267 million. In 2004, its UAV programs were budgeted at US$1726 million, over a six-fold increase, and by 2009, that number is programmed to double to US$3425 million. These figures imply an enduring commitment on the part of the U.S. Defense Department to unmanned aviation and to the myriad of infrastructure requirements their expanded operation entails. This commitment is manifested in the following U.S. military UAV programs:

     Air Force/Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk. The single largest UAV program currently in the Defense Department's budget at US$4800 million, Global Hawk costs will total an estimated US$7000 million by the time acquisition of its 51-aircraft fleet is completed in 2012. Its major accomplishments in the past year have been:

     - Supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom, flying 16 day-long missions over Iraq and collecting 25 percent of all the airborne reconnaissance imagery taken during the conflict.

     - Contracting for the first of the upgraded RQ-4B models, a 14,500-kg aircarft with a 1360-kg payload capacity and double the power previously generated onboard.

     - Demonstration of a Siemans signals intelligence payload during a six-week visit to the German air base at Nordholtz, on the Baltic Sea, its first European deployment.

     In the near future, a Global Hawk will fly a series of non-stop missions from California to Columbia in a demonstration of its ability to address U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) requirements. Delivery of the first operational aircraft to the future home of the Global Hawk fleet, Beale Air Force Base, California, is anticipated in 2004. Further in its future, it is scheduled to achieve Initial Ooperational Capability (IOC) in 2006. Global Hawk is under consideration for acquistion in a number of U.S., international and foreign programs, chief among them being the U.S. Navy's BAMS effort, NATO's Alliance Ground Surveillance System, and the U.S. Coast Guard's Deep Water Program. Orders from these programs could increase Global Hawk production to over 100 aircraft and extend it through 2016.

The Air Force and Navy Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle programs were combined in late 2003 into the Joint Unmanned Combat Aircraft System (J-UCAS) and placed under a newly-created joint program office within the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). With the receipt of additional funding in FY04, J-UCAS is now neck-and-neck with Global Hawk in its total budget for the next five years. DARPA envisons this as not so much a dual-UAV program as an effort to create an integrated sense-shoot-assess network where the UCAVs are nodes that can be changed out as future, better versions evolve. Representing a paradigm shift away from the typical hardware-centric program office, J-UCAS will instead focus on being a network with a common architecture, protocols, and interfaces in which various communications, sensors, weapons and avionics can come and go.

J-UCAS' major accomplishments this past year were:

     - Standing up the joint program office while preserving the expertise and momentum of the Service's UCAV programs.

     - Conducting the intial flight test of the Northrop Grumman X-47A UCAV demonstrator at China Lake, California.

     - Dropping the first munitions from the Boeing X-45A UCAV demonstrator, initiating stores separation testing.

     - Transmiting airborne imagery from the X-45A's radar sensor to ground controllers.

     In the coming year, J-UCAS is to demonstrate coordinated flights with the two X-45 prototypes, then graduate to the first demonstration of aerial refueling of an unmanned aircraft, and progress to joint Air Force-Navy operational assessments in 2007-09. Before then, much larger variants of both aircraft, the 16,000-kg X-45C and the 19,000-kg X-47B, are planned to enter the flight test program.

     The other major DARPA UAV programs, the Boeing X-50 Canard Rotor Wing (CRW) and the Frontier A-160 Hummingbird variable speed, rigid rotor rotorcraft demonstrators, both made progress over the past year. The X-50 achieved first flight in ___ and first mishap in March on its third hover test mission. One prototype remains, and the tricky transition from hover to fixed-wing flight remains to be attempted. The A-160 demonstrated an endurance of 4 hours and 10 minutes in October (enroute to 24+ hours), and its smaller testbed, an unmanned variant of a Robinson R22 helicopter nicknamed Maverick, has caught the interest of the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), who is buying two for evaluation.

At the start of the 2004 fiscal year, the Navy's Broad Area Maritme Surveilance (BAMS) program and its precursor Global Hawk Maritime Demonstration effort were, at US$2200 million, the third largest DoD UAV project budgetwise, but subsequent funding realignments severely reduced its near-year funding, putting the program in jeopardy. Originally the Navy was to order the first of two Global Hawks to serve as testbeds for its BAMs concept this year for delivery in 2005. The plan was to use them to assess how well and how much of the aging P-3 Orion's mission could a high altitude endurance UAV accomplish to aid in force mix decisions between it and a manned replacement for Orion. This evaluation was seen as also having ramifications for similar decisions on maritime patrol aircraft replacement decisions in Germany, Italy, Norway, and Japan. Instead, the first half of 2004 was a year of restructuring the entire BAMS effort, leading up to a significantly revised BAMS Request for Proposals.in April. The major contenders for BAMS are expected to be the Global Hawk, the General Atomics ASI Mariner (Predator B Extended Range), and the General Dynamics Gulfstream UC-37.

     The Air Force/General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, at US$1900 million the fourth largest DoD UAV program, was again in the news for its role in the Global War on Terrorism. On three fronts, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Iraq, Hellfire-equipped MQ-1s ("M" for multi-mission, "Q" for drone) sensed and shot fleeting terrorist targets, greatly reducing the complexity and time lags for acting on "actionable intelligence." Those equipped with the new Raytheon AAS-52 EO/IR sensor with a laser designator were also able to lase targets for manned strike aircraft. The last of the ACTD-vintage RQ-1A models were purposely expended over Baghdad in April, 2003, to draw out the AAA and shoulder-fired missile threats before manned A-10s were flown over the city. After a day of loitering, they were 'deposited' into the Tigris River, where local militia men tried to capture their pilots. Predators flew over 1300 combat hours in Iraq, with their missions being controlled directly from the U.S. once airborne, which significantly reduced their footprint in foreign countries.

     This past year, a third Predator squadron, the 17th Reconnaissance Squadon, was stood up, and the second lot of the larger turbo-prop variant of Predator, the MQ-9, was ordered, bringing the Air Force's total to seven. A longer-winged variant of the MQ-9, Altair, was delivered to NASA Dryden for flight testing and eventual use in flying science payloads. During the coming year, the Air Force plans to conduct testing of its Multiple Air Vehicle Control capability that modifies the Predator's ground station to handle two or more simultaneously airborne Predators.

     The U.S. Army's budget for its major UAV programs, US$1500 million, breaks out to US$800 million for the AAI RQ-7 Shadow, US$500 million for its planned Extended Range/Multi Purpose (ER/MP) UAV development effort, and US$200 million for the venerable Northrop Grumman RQ-5 Hunter. Besides sending four Shadow systems to Iraq to fly road reconnaissance missions ahead of its convoys, the Army also deployed a system to South Korea in 2003. The two Hunter systems deployed for Operation Iraqi Freedom logged some 3600 combat hours. The Army recently acquired 14 more Hunters to replace those attrited since Kosovo and tested a weapons delivery capability, using the ___, giving it a hunter-killer capability similar to that of Predator's. Its follow-on to Hunter, the ER/MP UAV, received its initial funding funding in October 2003, with a goal of fielding an initial capability by 2006. In a related initiative, the Army took deliver of the first two of three General Atomics I-Gnats in March 2004 and immediately deployed them to Iraq for operational evaluation in ER/MP roles.

     With the cancelation of its Comanche manned attack helicopter in March 2004, The Army is expected to place increased emphasis on developing and acquiring the Unmanned Combat Armed Rotorcraft (UCAR) that it is currently developing in concert with DARPA. Insight gained in Iraq clearly showed the vulnerabilty of attack helicopters when engaged in direct fire support, making the case that this is one of those 'dangerous' missions better left to a UAV. In addition, Comanche was a key element of the Future Combat System (FCS), the technology pillar of the U.S. Army's decades-long transformation effort, with each 2500-man Unit of Action in FCS slated to have had 36 of these advanced helicopters plus 24 Class IV UAVs. How many Comanche dollars will convert to more UAVs remains an open question. If FCS survives the budget ax in its coming years, it could eventually buy more UAVs than the rest of DoD combined over the coming decade.

     The Navy/Northrop Grumman RQ-8 Fire Scout certainly deserves the nickname "Phoenix" (apologies to the Royal Army/GEC Marconi system) for its recent revival act. Originally facing starvation funding in its final year (2004) and canceled by the Navy in everything but name, Fire Scout was selected by the Army as its Class IV UAV for its Future Combat System, and the Navy reinvested in it to be the airborne adjunct of its planned Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). The Army intends to order its first two RQ-8B models, a four rotor-bladed, 1400-kg variant of the current version of Fire Scout, in 2005 and take delivery in late 2006. If the Army's plans for FCS fully materialize, it could acquire some 1150 Fire Scouts for its 48 Units of Action by 2015. As for Navy plans, some 30-50 LCSes are envisioned, with perhaps half missionized to carry three Fire Scouts aboard at any given time.

     The Small UAV has become a standard sidearm for special operations foces working in Afghanistan and Iraq. Each of the military Services is operating at least one type of SUAV in these theaters, which are serving as operational test and evaluation grounds for them. Army special forces are using AeroViroment Pointers and its smaller cousin, Raven, for just what they were intended, over-the-hill reconnaissance in hilly Northern Iraq and Afghanistan. The 4.5-kg Pointer and the 2.7-kg Raven can be easily 'humped in,' require little skill to operate successfully, and can be quickly repaired in the field. The Army is ordering 185 Raven systems, each with three aircraft.

     Air Force Security Police are using about 30 Lockheed Martin Force Protection Airborne Surveillance System (FPASS) (a.k.a,, "Desert Hawk") 2.2-kg UAV to help patrol the perimeters of its air bases in the region's host countries. Eight of 20 planned FPASS systems had been delivered as of early 2004. Air Force special operations forces are also employing Aerovironment Pointers and Ravens.

     The Navy is testing the Advanced Ceramics Research's Silver Fox modular UAV for ship security and harbor patrol duty in theater. In recent tests stateside, the 9-kg UAV demonstrated an endurance of 17.5 hours. Navy special forces teams have also used the BAI Aerosystems Tern in Afghanistan, where the higher elevations compromise the performance of smaller-engined UAVs.

    The AeroVironment Dragon Eye has been deployed with the Marine Corps units that rotated into Iraq in early 2004. This follows an earlier deployment of 20 to Afghanistan. This two-man, 2-kg UAV will be used to provide small units (platoon and below) with their own reconnaissance capability, particularly in urban situations. The Marines intend to eventually acquire 323 Dragon Eye systems having three UAVs each.

But the largest single potential program for small UAVs is the Army's Future Combat System, a radical effort to transform its conventional single-mission brigades into multi-mission Units of Action (UAs) having a high reliance on robotic ground and air vehicles. FCS envisions each UA operating four "classes" of UAVs, ranging from 1-kg Class I Micro Air Vehicles (MAVs) and 10-kg Class II Organic Air Vehicles (OAVs) to 1400-kg Class IV vehicles. Although no official numbers for the numbers of FCS UAVs to be acquired has been released, the following census estimates how many could eventually be fielded for all 48 planned UAs..

     In summary, the U.S. military now operates some 180 UAVs of Shadow size or larger, and about 100 small UAVs. Under current budgetary plans, these numbers are programmed to grow to 430+ of the larger UAVs and some 1800 of the smaller UAVs by the end of this decade.

     Finally, with the conclusion of the NASA ERAST program in 2003, the next largest U.S. UAV interest outside the military is the newly established Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and in particular the U.S. Coast Guard which has been folded into it. Senior DHS leaders have been actively pushing UAVs into consideration for use in homeland security roles during the past year.

     The Coast Guard's Deep Water ship and aircraft recapitalization program intends to buy 69 Bell Textron Eagle Eye tiltrotor UAVs, and start deploying them aboard cutters in 2006. It also intends to lease up to seven land-based Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawks starting in 2016. The Coast Guard has funded a running series of UAV experiments since 2000, the latest one (November 2003) using Predators based in King Salmon, Alaska, to evaluate how well a UAV could perform the fisheries protection mission. In June 2004, it intends to return to King Salmon for 3 weeks with a General Atomics Predator B for further evaluations, after which the aircraft will deploy to Newfoundland for evaluation by Canadian armed forces.

     The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) division of DHS employed a Predator B over the Arizona/Mexico border area in conjunction with ICE's Black Hawk helicopters and Border Patrol ground units as part of Operation Safeguard in 2003, which captured 22 illegal aliens and over a ton of marijuana. A similar but longer duration exercise is planned by the Customs and Border Patrol division of DHS between June and September 2004 as part of the Arizona Border Control Initiative. Immediately following this deployment, the UAV will redeploy to the U.S/Canadian border for similar evaluations in that environment. By the end of 2004, DHS should have five solid months of experience with medium altitude emdurance UAVs on which to base its future acquisition and employment plans for UAVs.

     Although its premeir UAV program, ERAST, concluded in the past year, NASA still has a number of UAV initiatives underway. It is leasing the services of a flock/gaggle of 14-kg Aerosonde miniature endurance UAVs, stationed at its Wallops Island flight test facility on the Virginia coast, to fly atmospheric science payloads on an on-call basis. In quite a different role, the ATK GASL X-43A propulsion testbed made the first free flight by an airbreathing supersonic combustion ramjet ("scramjet") on 27 March 2004. Dropped from a NASA B-52 off the Pacific coast and boosted by a Pegasus rocket, the X-43 accelerated to Mach 7 and climbed on its own to 29,000 meters, setting a world speed record for air-breathing flight. The next and last X-43A flight is planned to reach Mach 10 in October of this year. Its successor, the X-43C, will resume unmanned hypersonic research flights under a joint Air Force/DARPA program in a few years.

     In conclusion, the growth in UAV funding in the U.S. since the end of the Cold War has been unprecedented, and the rate is increasing. This growth can be attributed in large part to the successive waves of interest in them generated by the Persian Gulf, Bosnia, Kosovo, September 11th, Afghanistan, and Iraq conflicts which have served to reinforce and build the tsunami on which interest in UAVs is currently riding.